By LAURIE PATTON | 27 February 2020
Telstra’s decision to only offer a maximum 50Mbps plan to more than half its NBN customers is another setback in the quest for #BetterBroadband and further vindication of Labor’s plan to make Australia what Malcolm Turnbull subsequently dubbed an “innovation nation”. It’s the latest fulfilment of a highly political decision by Tony Abbott to instruct Turnbull to demolish NBN Co.
If anyone knows about good and bad broadband it’s Telstra. And they know that anything other than fibre is second best.
Our biggest telco has stopped offering its top-line 100Mbps plan to customers with fibre-to-the-node (FTTN), fibre-to-the-curb (FTTC) and fibre-to-the-basement (FTTB). These are the technologies that replaced a full-fibre rollout for fixed-line customers in the original NBN model when the Coalition introduced its so-called multi-technology mix (MTM) model in 2013.
FTTN and FTTB were always destined to disappoint because they rely very heavily on old copper wire telephone lines. FTTC is a good interim option, but its ability to provide fast broadband has been hampered by issues relating to a new delivery technology called G.Fast which, when it is finally available, promises much faster speeds over the relatively short length of copper that runs from the kerb into the premises. That said, the poor quality of so much of the old Telstra copper wire network will present challenges.
Over in New Zealand 87 percent of premises will have access to FTTP by the end of 2022. FTTP is already delivering gigabit speeds to many customers across the ditch.
The beauty of fibre is that it is has an unlimited capability to be upgraded as faster delivery technologies enter the market from time to time. The outdated 20th Century rubbish NBN Co was forced to use has already passed its use-by date and cannot compete in an emerging digitally-enabled world.
South Korea will have made FTTP available to 99 percent of customers by 2022, with half the population able to receive an eye-watering 10Gbps. By the end of this year Thailand will see 100Mbps available to 95 percent of premises in its cities. China is understandably focusing on urban delivery, with 100Mbps on-offer to 50 percent of city-based broadband customers.
Here in Australia Labor’s plan was for a nationwide network with 93 percent FTTP coverage. Under the Coalition’s model only around 20 percent of NBN Co customers will enjoy FTTP. Around a third of fixed-line premises will be lumbered with FTTN.
In time market forces and ongoing media scrutiny will hopefully force the Government to over-rule itself and start replacing FTTN – either with FTTP or at least FTTC. This is already happening by stealth as NBN Co progressively reveals that more areas of the old Telstra copper network are unusable. That’s on top of having to abandon plans to use the old Optus Pay-TV (HFC) cables and the additional, unbudgeted, costs of remediating large portions of the Telstra HFC network. In my area they are also abandoning Telstra HFC and deploying FTTC. Whereas I currently receive more than 100Mbps the best I can be guaranteed when the NBN is connected is half that!
RMIT’s Dr Mark Gregory has estimated the potential cost of repairing the discredited MTM at around $16 billion. I’m hopeful it will a lot less than that, especially if we learn from Chorus NZ which has reduced its per premises fibre rollout cost 40 percent by refining the process.
Internet Australia chair, Dr Paul Brooks argues that the replacement process should begin pretty much straight away once NBN Co cries ‘mission accomplished’ in June this year – the scheduled completion date for the MTM-based rollout.
Swinburne’s Dr Steven Conway agrees with Brooks that while it will be expensive fixing the NBN must be done without delay. He told New Daily: “When you compare us to any other first-world country, in terms of the speed at which data can move and the amount of data we have to move, we’re going to be left in the dark ages”.
Meanwhile, NBN Co continues to post staggering losses and is having to borrow more than the $19 billion the Government originally promised. Long term financial success requires upselling customers to the faster speed packages where margins are better. But that’s proving a tad difficult with a mix of such inferior technologies.
The secret of success in New Zealand, as TelSoc members were reminded this week, is that both sides of politics have always agreed on the need for a state-of-the-art broadband network.
Appearing before the Parliamentary NBN Committee (28 February 2020) the CEO of NBN Co couldn’t actually remember what the technology mix will be when the project is (theoretically) completed in June. Later he had to look up the accounts to tell the committee how much money they made last year. Not making me feel comfortable.
(Laurie Patton is a former journalist and media executive, former CEO / Executive Director of Internet Australia, and currently Vice President of the Telecommunications Society (TelSoc). Some of the views expressed here are those of the writer and are not necessarily shared by TelSoc or its members.)